Bakun Again
December 2000

THE obsession the Government of Malaysia has with the Bakun Hydroelectric Project in Sarawak is almost unnatural. If a cat has nine lives, the dam is probably close to being an immortal, whose many rebirths have taught its conceivers no lessons from its previous death. Now that there is talk about Bakun being revived to its original, full-scale size, don't you just wish that we had a better memory?

WISHING FOR A DAM

Studies relating to the hydropower potential of the Rajang River Basin, where the Bakun Dam is situated, date way back to the 1960s. The Bakun Hydroelectric Project (BHEP) itself has been studied and reviewed more than 20 times since the early 1980s.

When the Government finally deliberated on the implementation of the hydroelectric project in the 1980s, the collapse in commodity prices that led to the recession in 1985 impeded the execution of the project for the first time. The project was apparently called off primarily for two reasons.

One, there was official concern on the reality of the future growth of electricity demand in the country. If the future projections of national electricity demand would eventually, in the ensuing years, prove to be too ambitious, Bakun may end up being virtually useless and totally wasteful. Two, there was also the issue of basic economics that seemed to point to other available, cheaper, technologically tried and tested options like gas.

Oddly enough, these are the very same arguments that critics of Bakun have been trying to point out until today. Bakun is formidably expensive and Malaysia is not running out of electricity in the future.

When the Federal Cabinet in 1993 finally approved the project, it was clear that right from the start, the dam would be travelling on a bumpy road. There were massive opposition both at local and international levels, court cases, desertion from international investors, souring relationships between project developers. Finally, the Asian currency crisis in 1997 single-handedly forced the project to be deferred indefinitely and eventually downscaled by at least 70 percent.

However few parties noted that in early June 1999, when the Prime Minister stated that the Government was thinking of downscaling the power capacity of Bakun to 500MW, he also asserted that "but already there is talk that we go for a bigger power plant." Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) then responded to this statement eagerly, "Oh yes, Tenaga is interested. We need energy now."

The lesson learnt, from what Winston Churchill once termed, the disease of giganticism, somehow appeared to be less painful than the reluctance of letting go an excessively expensive 2,400MW hydroelectric power project.

TUNNEL VISION

Today, works on the diversion tunnels of the dam are anticipated to be completed by April next year. Therefore, before the construction of the next phase commences, which includes the high copper dam and the main dam itself, the decision on the dam's eventual size would have to be made.

Searching for light at the end of the tunnel today are TNB and the Sarawak Electricity Supply Board (SESCO), the two parties commissioned to conduct a feasibility study (again?), "on the market potential for power to be generated from the Bakun project". It is the outcome of this latest study, which is probably now in its final stage, that will determine the final, eventual size of Bakun.

Meanwhile, in need of so much light is the Sarawak State Government, which had conveyed its view of the dam's capacity to commissioned TNB and SESCO. Their view confidently suggests that all of 2,400 MW should stay when critics have even questioned the ability of the State to single-handedly absorb 500MW of the downscaled dam.
The grand question now is of course, "submarine cables, anyone?"

BIG PACKAGES

Today, as the public is excluded from the decision-making process on Bakun's fate, the market is already anticipating the tendering process for the full-scale revival of the project as a few big names, said to be eyeing the cake with equal zeal, are named.

The Government is said to contemplate splitting the project into "various packages", probably as a result of the only lesson it learnt from Bakun's previous near death experience - "do not have one package only."
Both foreign and local companies are said to have been "lobbying" to get their share of the project although factors such as the nature of the tender, type of contracts awarded and project packaging, have yet to be decided by our authorities. The zeal is surely real.

Quick to rise and quick to stumble, the construction industry has indeed a very short memory. The reason for the industry's excitement is simple; according to The Edge on October 31, "Bakun, from a construction company's point of view is "heaven-sent"". Good things come in big packages with major infrastructure spending and according to the construction analyst quoted by The Edge, "construction companies thrive on projects like this." The project could be the rise after the stumble for many companies.

Among the many faces said to be eyeing the project are two familiar old ones.
Rising after the stumble is Tan Sri Tim Pek Khiing's Ekran Berhad, the company that received the major turnkey contract to build the dam back in 1994 and received RM390 million in compensation in 1997 when the State took over the project from them. Along with Ekran is Asea Brown Boveri from Switzerland, the same construction company whose contract was terminated in 1997 when its relationship with Ekran soured over disputes on engineering, procurement and construction contracts.

Other than these, Italian Pirelli Cavi, French Alcatel and the German Siemens Group are also rumoured to be competing for business. From Malaysia, United Engineers (M) Berhad is also understood to have expressed interest in the continuation of the project.

CABLING UP

At press time, it is still unclear as to whether the submarine cables would be built or not. If Bakun is indeed revived anywhere near its original capacity, the power generated by it would certainly overwhelm Sabah and Sarawak. Certainly, if the State's 2,400 MW-wish does come true, it is hard to imagine the project without the submarine cables.

The Edge on October 23 pointed out that sources had claimed that Bakun could go full steam ahead "with an installed capacity of 2,400 MW, either on a staggered basis or immediately upon completion."

The four 670-km undersea cables, at RM2 billion each, according to conservative estimates, are surely the most coveted part of the project. This is the structure that could sustain its builder for a while.

However an analyst quoted by The Edge points out that from the dam's operational point of view, the cables would require a hefty capital inlay. "The company undertaking the operations will need really deep pockets to take on the concession, which could go on for 50 years compared with 20 to 30 years for a gas-fired plant." Besides being tremendously exorbitant, they also have to grapple with difficult issues like reliability, transmission loss and maintenance.

CALL IT OFF

Should the Peninsula presently face power shortage, 2,400 MW from Bakun, carried by world's longest undersea cables would not be able to solve the problem over the immediate to short term. This is because Bakun and the cables will only be completed in at least seven years, if everything goes well this time, although this never happened in the history of the dam.

According to the aforementioned analyst, Penin-sular Malaysia might as well load up on gas-fired plants starting today, as it would take an average of 18 months to build one. This will not only be more reliable and much, much cheaper; it also would not involve the displacement and suffering of 9,000 persons (see related story).

Better still, we might as well attempt to lead the world, like we always love to do, in solar energy development, a technology now available but manipulatively sidelined by a fossil fuel energy industry that is committed to profit.
We call for Bakun to be called off once and for all. There is no use trying to spill the milk again and again for one day we might just go hungry. At least some people in Sungai Asap are now.